Quantum Apocalypse: The End of the Internet as We Know It?

Growing Fear of a Quantum Apocalypse

After Alphabet (Google's parent company) announced to the public that it had achieved "quantum supremacy", the whole world gasped in awe, and news outlets unanimously proclaimed the dawn of a new era. However, not everyone shares this optimism. Quantum computers have the potential to dismantle most modern cryptography methods. This means our online security could be at risk.

Threat to E-commerce

There are about 7.7 billion people in the world, of which — according to Statista — around 1.8 billion shop online. This means over 20% of the global population buys online, and it's estimated that by 2021 this number will rise to 2.14 billion. Data from the portal reveals that in 2019, e-commerce will account for 14% of all retail sales worldwide.

There are few scenarios that could halt the further growth of online commerce. Alongside deadly epidemics, armed conflicts, or financial crises, there is increasing talk of the threat posed by the development and popularization of quantum computers. According to some opinions, at least in the coming years, such a scenario has a much higher probability than other dark visions from analysts. Modern consumerism has never faced such a blow, and who knows if a quantum blackout would brutally knock it down.

As Bronto Software research shows, about a quarter of people shopping online order something at least once a week. Therefore, we cannot ignore the huge impact online shopping has on our lives. The digitalization of rigid and old-fashioned sectors that long resisted the digital revolution, such as banking and payment systems, makes e-shopping increasingly simple and, consequently, more popular. Online commerce exploded when global trade platforms like Amazon emerged, eliminating another problem customers faced. We're talking about the fragmentation and dispersion of online sales points. No wonder consumers fear a scenario where they lose not only access to their favorite platforms but also the ability to conduct any transactions online. We quickly get used to privileges and conveniences and are reluctant to give them up - believes Sascha Stockem from Nethansa, a Sopot-based startup that brings Polish and German companies onto the Amazon marketplace, where he manages product sales with the help of artificial intelligence.

Is Quantocalypse Coming?

By 2021, the e-commerce market is expected to account for 17.5% of retail sales worldwide. This is a huge pool of potential buyers, but also over two billion people more or less vulnerable to the risks of shopping online. Has another method, incomparably better, just joined the set of well-known tactics used by e-thieves? Quantum computers capable of breaking the security used by banks or online stores could lead to an economic crisis compared to which the dot-com bubble burst or the subprime mortgage crisis would look like minor fluctuations.
Is Quantocalypse coming?

In October 2019, the trio of Google, NASA, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory demonstrated the ability to perform calculations that would take even the largest and most advanced modern supercomputers thousands of years.

The news of the quantum capabilities of the Mountain View giant stirred many emotions — mostly positive. Commentators focused mainly on how much quantum computers surpass their binary predecessors. The applause drowned out the voice of quantum alarmists, which is worth listening to in order to properly prepare for the coming revolution.

Reasons for concern are not imaginary. The cryptography underlying modern internet communication and electronic commerce could one day buckle under the power of quantum computers. For now, however, there's nothing to fear - says Sascha Stochem.

Quantum Computers and Online Security

The founder of Nethansa backs his opinion with a study by the National Academies of Sciences, which shows that existing quantum computer prototypes have insufficient computational power and are too error-prone to threaten cybersecurity. According to the report's authors, quantum computers capable of doing so would need 100,000 times more computational power and 100 times lower error rates. The report lacked a specific forecast on the time until such progress, but let's not expect it within the next decade.

A different viewpoint is represented by ReRez Research, a company that conducted a study on 400 IT organization leaders. It reveals that 71% of respondents see the emergence of quantum computers as a real threat to cybersecurity. Moreover, most believe quantum computers will be used to break encryption codes within the next three years.

Encouragingly, 95% of IT leaders are already working on at least one tactic to help prepare a post-quantum cryptography strategy, while a third have established a budget for such cryptography, and 56% are already working on such a budget.

Strong cryptography is essential for the overall cybersecurity of state institutions, businesses, and society as a whole. It forms the basis for secure data transmission and storage and authenticating trusted connections between people and systems. This is how banks, online stores, and even internet messengers like WhatsApp or the more advanced Telegram operate.

The development and popularization of devices capable of breaking advanced ciphers will put us in the face of a major threat. A threat to the security of the entire world, not just commerce.

Fortunately, many signs suggest that the evolution of quantum computers will take a very long time. It should also be remembered that the operation of companies like Alphabet, which are working on developing a new type of computer, depends on high levels of online security. So it's not that they're digging themselves into a hole, but developing solutions to protect against quantum threats - concludes Stochem.

Summary

Quantum computers, whose capabilities were demonstrated by the trio of Google, NASA, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, could threaten the foundations of cryptography, and thus the security of online commerce and all internet communication. Experts from the National Academies of Sciences reassure that current prototypes are too weak and error-prone, but ReRez Research studies indicate that 71% of IT leaders view this as a real threat over the next three years. Companies like Nethansa, which bring clients onto the Amazon platform, are already preparing post-quantum cryptography strategies. It is crucial that quantum development goes hand in hand with protection against new cyber threats.