According to eMarketer, the value of online sales in the US increased by 18 percent in 2020. Statista reports that for Germany this growth will be 22 percent, for France 27 percent, and for the UK 31 percent. For Poland, 300Research forecasts over 30 percent growth in the e-commerce industry. Meanwhile, according to Google, the number of people shopping online in 2020 increased globally by 26 percent.

What did 2020 bring?

Regardless of the data source and the authorship of the analyses, experts agree that this year's growth rate in e-commerce is exceptionally high and correlated with the pandemic and the related restrictions. So what can we expect next year given the expected fading of Covid-19? Will the growth continue? What could be a barrier to it?

E-commerce forecasts for 2021 according to experts

We present a summary of 2020 and forecasts for 2021 from experts at four e-commerce companies: Blue Media, merce.com, PromoTraffic, and Comperia.pl

Krystian Wesołowski, Head of Sales, Blue Media:

Looking at the results, it is worth remembering that we are not dealing with two separate worlds - e-commerce and the rest. There is one economy. I have no illusions that it will record weaker results than in recent years. Even if in some areas online results are record-breaking. Looking from the perspective of online commerce, I would list three different groups that will gain the most. The first group consists of areas where an increase in online sales will simultaneously mean an increase in revenue for the entire industry. Here, spectacular growth will certainly be recorded by home entertainment services - that is, access to films, music, games, and books, but also, for example, the home furnishing market. Another group will consist of industries where an increase in online sales will not mean good results for the entire industry. These are the clothing, events, and cosmetics industries. This is due to various reasons: we do not meet up or go out as often, so we do not need five types of perfume, as many color cosmetics, or suits. We have replaced jeans with "long-lasting" tracksuits, and from a virtual basket - unlike a shopping cart - it is easier to remove a few unnecessary products. Another group consists of industries that will not grow either online or at all. It is worth remembering that some industries that also generated online turnover essentially stopped selling overnight. These include, among others, the traditional entertainment sector, which enabled the purchase of tickets or passes to the cinema, theater, or concerts online, as well as tourism. If we look deeper at the latter industry, we will notice that the tourism services sector is a network of interconnected vessels. Sales also froze in travel insurance and booking services. New suitcases or swimming sets for the warm Adriatic are not selling either... The e-commerce market will certainly emerge from 2020 stronger, because a large part of services that previously were not there at all or almost not at all have permanently settled online - for example, door-to-door car service. Many projects that took years were launched from one month to the next. Stokrotka and PoloMarket began selling online. Producers also seized the opportunity by launching direct sales, bypassing distributors and intermediaries, for example, Mlekovita and Wawel. On top of that came a whole group of projects under the banner of "process digitalization," for example, telemedicine. A large group of new customers also became convinced to shop online. What remains in question is how the shares of sales, for example, of food products, will be distributed after the pandemic. Will customers prefer to choose a tomato from an image or one from the market, or will they prefer to order silicone and a brush online, or will they choose that silicone and brush from a store shelf.

Paweł Szewczyk, Vice President of the Management Board, merce.com

Online commerce in Poland has been growing by about 10 percent year on year for several years. This year it made a spectacular leap, difficult to estimate at the moment. Next year there may be a correction in growth, which will still mean high dynamics by market standards. A barrier could be general consumer sentiment and economic slowdown. It should be remembered that traditional and internet commerce are closely interconnected vessels. However, no barriers are visible beyond general economic ones. E-commerce underwent a kind of stress test this year and came out of it unscathed both in terms of technology and logistics. The biggest changes are visible in three areas. The e-commerce market is slowly beginning to enter a consolidation phase. Seeing less and less free space in the market, companies are merging with each other or with related companies in order to offer a broad range of products to customers. Producers, in turn, are beginning to invest more heavily in their online presence and systems, not focusing only on distributors. This is what Nike or Adidas do, for example. In the long term, this may be significant for a number of companies. The second industry closely linked to e-commerce is logistics. It seems that the Polish consumer has a very large number of options for receiving a parcel and does not wait too long for it. In addition, there is a desire to create further pickup concepts, similar to Paczkomaty, by successive brands. However, the sector that had to adapt quickly was the B2B sector, in practically all industries. Here, even the grounding of sales representatives necessitated seeking another way to reach the customer. Such an express transformation of sales laid the foundations for deep digitalization, which we will observe in this sector.

Robert Stolarczyk, CEO of PromoTraffic, a digital agency for e-commerce

The number of registered online stores in Poland is growing year by year. This year we are already talking about more than 40,000 online stores - in 2020 alone, about 9,000 new stores were added, which means we are talking about significant acceleration. To achieve such a growth rate, Polish e-commerce usually needed 6-7 years until now. Now it has achieved it in a year. The value of online transactions is estimated at over PLN 60 billion, which means growth of 20 percent year on year. Although the latest IAB report after two quarters of this year shows that for the first time in a very long time spending on internet advertising fell year on year (specifically, it fell by 4.5 percent comparing the first half of 2020 to the same period in 2019), this will probably change at the end of the year. The second half of the year is harvest time for e-commerce, which also invests heavily in online advertising. The latest reports on Black Friday from key e-commerce providers, such as Shoper, confirm record increases in revenue value in stores. Another matter is that already every third Polish internet user declares that they now shop online more often. The categories that have grown most strongly online in Poland in recent months are mainly clothing, footwear, cosmetics, consumer electronics, pharmaceutical products, home furnishings, books and audiobooks, car accessories, and children's products. However, it is worth being aware that in 2021 many stores that were founded on the wave of pandemic restrictions will not stand the test of time. Those stores that manage to continue developing will build the value of the Polish e-economy. The entire internet commerce sector will certainly gain in importance in the context of the entire economy.

Paweł Szukalski, Management Board Member, Comperia.pl:

Although Poland is one of the fastest-growing European e-commerce markets this year, it should be remembered that with the onset of the pandemic we started from a "lower level" than Western European countries. The Polish consumer is still not as aware as the German one, who, for example, with the help of the "buy now, pay later" function, can buy three or four of the same items. They will keep only the parcel they receive first. The rest they will return - after all, they are entitled to free returns. This does not involve any cash flow on their part. In 2021, even more Polish e-stores will introduce installment payments for online purchases, "buy now - pay later" solutions, and 0 percent loans for selected goods. We know this because stores themselves contact us looking for such solutions. Due to the accelerated education of Polish e-customers in the past year, I do not foresee a slowdown in the profits of the entire e-commerce sector in 2021. Amazon's long-announced direct entry into Poland may further increase the number of purchases on the Polish internet. However, the question remains open whether all e-commerce entities will grow proportionally. It is not insignificant here that digital platforms such as the Allegro Group, Aliexpress, and Amazon monopolize some industries.

Summary

Experts agree that 2020 was exceptional for e-commerce – growth ranged from 18 percent in the US to over 30 percent in Poland, and the pandemic forced the rapid digitalization of many industries. However, they point out that not all sectors gained – for example, tourism and traditional entertainment suffered despite their online presence.

In 2021, they expect continued growth, but with a possible correction. A barrier could be the economic slowdown, while an opportunity lies in the development of deferred payments, market consolidation, and Amazon's potential entry into Poland. Some new stores founded on the wave of the pandemic may not survive.