Flying has never been safer! But expect more turbulence

Flying has never been safer! But fasten your seatbelt – there will be more turbulence

According to the latest report by Allianz and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, despite record passenger numbers, 2017 and 2018 were among the safest years in the aviation industry.

Despite a record number of over 4 billion passengers worldwide, statistics show that flying has never been safer. The global aviation industry has recently experienced its safest years in terms of fatal accidents – according to a new report "Aviation Risk 2020" published by Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) in collaboration with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – the largest, fully accredited university specializing in aviation.

Three of the last four years were the safest in aviation history. In 2017, for the first time in at least 60 years, there were no fatalities on passenger jet flights. This makes it the safest year in history. Even 2018, which recorded a total of 15 aviation accidents involving 556 fatalities, is the third safest in history – according to statistics from the Aviation Safety Network. Third place in terms of safety went to 2015. The report also noted that the chances of dying in a commercial aviation accident are very unlikely compared to other forms of transport, such as a car or bicycle. Moreover, there is a greater likelihood of death from unexpected events such as an accidental gun discharge than from an aviation disaster.

Wide-scale efforts to improve safety

What is driving safety improvements?

Continuous improvement in aviation safety can be attributed to several factors, such as design improvements, new technologies, more effective pilot training, as well as significant improvements in manufacturing processes, flight operations and regulation. Aerodynamic improvements, "fly-by-wire" aircraft and more effective safety checks have had a significant impact on accident rate figures over recent decades. Additionally, engine manufacturers have almost eliminated the risk of engine failure. Moreover, radio and avionics are now extremely precise, and improved air traffic control technology and better collision systems have also contributed to safety improvements.

- Pilots now have far more "live" information at their fingertips, and current navigation systems are able to determine an aircraft's position to within one thousandth of a mile. Advances in science have also allowed the aviation industry to better understand how humans can affect safety. Pilot fatigue, training, crew resource management and other factors are becoming increasingly important issues - says E. David Williams, adjunct professor in aviation and occupational safety, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

More turbulence – and damage – still ahead

Increasing turbulence and damage

According to the report, passengers may feel safer on board an aircraft than ever before. However, they must expect an increased number of turbulence events in the future. Turbulence is projected to increase in the coming decades due to climate change and global warming – particularly on flights between Europe and North America. In July 2019, nearly 40 people were injured during an Air Canada flight from Vancouver to Sydney, which was hit by severe turbulence and had to make an emergency landing as a result. This is just one of many incidents that occur on flights every day around the world.

Although aviation safety has improved significantly in recent decades, especially in terms of fatal accident numbers, a large and steadily growing number of flight-related claims continues to be recorded. Allianz analyzed over 50,000 claims from the aviation insurance sector between 2013 and 2018 worth more than £12.6 billion. Collisions/aviation disasters account for more than half the value of all claims – and these include not only tragic accidents but also damage caused by foreign objects or ground accidents at busy airports. There are many other causes of losses, such as passengers slipping and falling, machinery failures and engine failures, fleet groundings and accidents caused by the use of incorrect fuel, all of which result in ever greater losses for aircraft manufacturers, airlines and their insurers.

Costly repairs – a rented engine more expensive than the entire aircraft

The growing sophistication of manufacturing for new-generation aircraft raises the costs associated with repairs and groundings. They are often built using lightweight composite materials, such as carbon fiber layers (to use less fuel), and are equipped with sophisticated technology. - We recently handled a claim in which an engine had to be rented while the damaged one was being repaired. It turned out that the value of the rented engine was higher than the entire aircraft, including its original engine - says David Watkins, regional director of General Aviation, AGCS.

Summary

Flying is now the safest it has ever been – 2017 and 2018 were record years for low fatalities, even though more than 4 billion passengers used aircraft. The improvement is the result of new technologies, better training and precise avionics. However, experts from Allianz and Embry-Riddle warn of a growing number of turbulence events caused by climate change, which will increase the risk of incidents and insurance costs.

An analysis of 50,000 claims worth £12.6 billion shows that collisions and disasters account for more than half of all payouts. Modern composite aircraft are also increasingly expensive to repair – sometimes renting an engine costs more than the entire aircraft.