In 2023, 1.5 million new battery-only electric cars were registered in the European Union, bringing the total to 4.5 million such vehicles. Despite this, they represent only 1.7% of all cars in the EU. As noted by Prof. Wojciech Paprocki from the Warsaw School of Economics, it is evident that the popularization of electric cars is not happening as quickly as was expected a few years ago. The main problem remains the high price of these vehicles, which may lead to the need to change EU plans related to the electrification of transport.
– The fact that an administrative decision has been made in Europe setting the date for the end of allowing new combustion vehicles is treated as a certain marker of the era of electromobility and its absolute universal adoption. We see that consumer sentiment is not as strong as originally expected. I am a supporter of the view that the EU authorities will probably have to modify their decisions, because it is neither in the interest of consumers nor in the interest of the automotive industry to implement such an ambitious plan by the set deadline – Prof. Wojciech Paprocki tells the Newseria Biznes news agency.
The 2035 target for cars
According to the European Commission's assumptions, by 2035 all new cars are to be zero-emission. Road transport is responsible for 70 percent of greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the EU. Strict CO2 emission standards for new cars are intended to reduce emissions, helping Europe achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
According to Eurostat data, in 2023 1.5 million new battery-only electric passenger cars were registered in the EU, increasing their total number to 4.5 million.
– The future, however, is not clear-cut. We see that the popularization of battery cars will not happen as quickly as it seemed a few years ago, at least in Europe. Whether the battery car will be the dominant drive in private motoring, as well as in commercial transport, we do not know today – says the transport expert. – There are many reservations about the environmental effects of using battery vehicles, in particular their decommissioning and recycling. Work is currently underway on alternative solutions, such as hydrogen propulsion or the use of so-called synthetic fuels, which could be considered zero-emission throughout the entire cycle of their creation and use.
Decline in hydrogen car sales
The future of motoring and the popularity of battery cars
According to the research firm SNE Research, in 2023 fewer than 14,500 vehicles with hydrogen fuel cells (FCEV) were sold worldwide. That is 30.2 percent less than in 2022, and sales fell even compared to 2021. The main problems with using hydrogen are large energy losses compared to, for example, electric drives, which translates into higher costs, the high price of hydrogen and its availability. There is also a lack of refueling stations. Synthetic fuels, in turn, have a chance to become an alternative to electric cars only in a dozen or so years. An analysis conducted by the non-governmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E) showed that by 2035 synthetic fuels will be sufficient for only about 2 percent of cars in Europe.
That is why electric cars are still much more common than other low-emission vehicles, but the number of new electric cars is growing more slowly than could have been expected just a few years ago. Although the share of battery-only electric cars among new registrations reached 14.6 percent last year, electric cars still account for only 1.7 percent of cars across the Union, with clear differences between individual member states.
– The basic problem concerns the price of these vehicles. European manufacturers, somewhat imitating Tesla, the American manufacturer, bet on vehicles with very high driving and travelling comfort, of course with the advantage of the zero-emission nature of the battery vehicle. But it turned out that the average consumer in Europe does not have such a budget to buy top-shelf cars. Meanwhile, the offer of both European and other manufacturers, with the exception of Chinese ones, who have relatively cheap, smaller electric cars, was limited for many years only to premium-class cars – analyzes Prof. Wojciech Paprocki.
Cost as the greatest obstacle
According to a study conducted by the non-governmental organization Transport & Environment, based on an analysis by the consulting firm Syndex, price is the greatest obstacle to buying an electric car. In Europe, the average price of a battery-only electric car increased between 2015 and 2023 by 39 percent (+£15,500), while in China it fell by 53 percent. The T&E analysis indicates that this results from European manufacturers' disproportionate focus on large cars and SUVs, which have a higher price. Only 17 percent of electric cars sold belong to the B segment, which is more affordable. In the combustion car segment, this percentage is 37 percent. In the D segment, these proportions are reversed – 28 percent for electric cars and 13 percent for combustion cars.
– At the moment, the first cheaper electric cars have begun to appear, but these budget vehicles have a maximum range of 124 miles. This discourages purchases in those consumer households where there is one car that is used every day for local commuting, but is also meant to serve for holiday travel and a skiing trip. This makes the electric car be perceived as not entirely suited to needs – explains the SGH expert.
In new car registration data, there is growing interest in hybrid-powered cars. The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association reports that in June of this year, cars with such engines accounted for 30 percent of registrations in the EU, and their share is growing rapidly. A PBS survey commissioned by Automarket.pl shows that in Poland 33 percent of respondents are interested in a hybrid over a five-year horizon. For comparison, 8 percent indicated electric cars. Nearly three-quarters of respondents appreciate the low fuel consumption of hybrid-powered cars.
– If one were to assess the behavior of manufacturers, the most stable strategy is that of Toyota, which from the very beginning chose hybrid cars from among all solutions, much less emissive than traditional cars with petrol or diesel engines. Other manufacturers, with the exception of Tesla, which bet on only one solution, long stayed with petrol cars, and then wanted to jump in one step to battery cars. They did not go through the hybrid path, which they are now trying to make up for – says Prof. Wojciech Paprocki.
